Analysis Procedure For Storm Track

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Analysis Procedure For Storm Track
What is Climatology>>>Analysis result of  Timly , Monthly, Year  Mean of that location or area or regional  weather situation.
How to analysis For Storm Climatology  ….. Persistence Method way or Climatology Method way
Climatology Way >>>>> Using 30 years Mean data for monthly
                If you see DALR( 5’C per 1000 ft ) / SALR on cloudy area ,there will be unstable state of Air….
Persistence Way>>>>>Thinking Base on past 12 hours movement of storm or cyclone……….. and give forecast for next 12 hours
Forecast of Storm Track……  ½(Persistence +Climatology)…. You can Find mean track …
Text Box: Plume(Out Flow) Plume (In Flow)
Tropical Cyclone Movement habit is direction Plume out flow direction.Warm Core Cyclone.
Q(Temp:),Wind, Pressure relationship….normally Cyclone can move to Pressure Area
And you get mean direction continue calculate the movement speed and calculate the land fall point.
eye of a storm is a roughly circular area, typically 30–65 km (20–40 miles) in diameter
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Analysis Procedure For Weather Forecast
Firstly think Area (Land or Ocean) It can be different then continue as following steps
v  Heat (Solar Energy)(Heat Budget)>>>>>Base on Sea surface Temp: or Land Surface Temp:
(But should thinking QWP relationship) as following picture

v  Wind Field>>>>Cyclonic circulation and flows (direction & speed)
Tangential Wind  The component of the velocity directed along the velocity vector (streamline), with magnitude equal to the speed of the parcel at that point.

v  Cloud Formation and Movement>>>>Check cloud types , RH value for moisture content in clouds

v  Precipitation Condition>>>>Region Normal habit

*****  Formula of Local Area Forecast >>> P + T + Vddff + RH + Cl,CM,Ch,Cb*******
El Nino >>>>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o

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